Patience: A Trader's Secret Weapon

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For the longest time, I was under the impression that you had to trade all the time to be successful. The more you were active in the market, the more opportunities you would find and the more chances you would have to be successful. This couldn't be further from the truth. What I managed to find out is that I opened myself up to more chances for error, less time to plan my trades, and even less time to plan my exit strategies. 

Over the years, I have learned about my risk tolerance, my strengths, my weaknesses, and my emotions when it comes to trading. In the beginning I was placing stupid trades based on what I thought was an intelligent mix of fundamental and technical analysis. I made a little bit of money at first, but as time went on and my trade frequency increased, I lost more than what I made after the first few trades. I attribute my primary winnings to beginner's luck, and my subsequent losses to my lack of education. While on my self-imposed baptism-by-fire I was only trading stocks and options. Both of which provided me with fantastic ways to generate commissions for my broker and realize losses in my trading account.

Some people, myself included, call this introductory period "market tuition," and they do so for good reason. When I started, all I wanted to do was trade. There was such a thrill in clicking the 'submit' button and seeing my order get filled. The adrenaline kicked in, the market did its thing, and then when the stop-loss would trigger, anger would set in. I never liked losing, but it's part of the game. On a side note, have you ever noticed how drug dealers and brokers offer the first few samples of their product for free? They know just how addicting their products are. They market their products to your weaknesses and they know you will keep coming back for more.

After doing the basic math, I realized that I was generating hundreds of dollars in commissions for my broker while additionally generating hundreds of dollars in losses for myself. This lead me to realize that I was doing two things wrong. First and foremost, I was trading too much. Secondly, I wasn't trading properly. During this period of introspection, I started to read more books about trading, but I was also trading less. I was carefully picking my battles and adapting my strategies over time so that I would place trades that were more favorable to me than to the market-maker on the other side of the equation.

I also started delving into the history of finance, banking, and the underlying structures of globalism while also exploring how I could utilize professional money-management and trading techniques to my advantage. I learned about where our money comes from, how it is created, how it gets destroyed, and how 'the system' truly works. Without this knowledge, my naiveté would have kept me from learning the skills needed to start trading properly and effectively. You're probably wondering why this matters, and I'll tell you now: Wall Street is in business to make money. The markets giveth and the markets taketh away. These guys don't own the tallest buildings in every city in the world by losing money. In order to swim in a sea of sharks, you have to learn how sharks think and act so that you don't get eaten alive.

Aside from learning about how the big boys play their game, I also did significant reading about how to manage risk and how to keep track of my trading. There are two books which I attribute to my 'recovery' and they are the following (both by Dr. Alexander Elder):


and


Both of these books are worth their weight in gold for the simple, yet important lessons they offer with regards to becoming a serious trader. These books offer insight into technical analysis, trading systems, and trade accounting among other things. Dr. Elder's strategies regarding risk are directly reflected in my risk calculator and I also utilize his approach to looking at multiple timeframes for charting. After reading these two books a few times over, I managed to change the way I looked at potential trades. I started to discipline myself more, and I kept track of every single trade. Furthermore, every two weeks I plot my account equity on an "equity curve" and look at how my account has performed over time.

Additionally, I started thinking about the market differently. The market is not some happy place where you earn an annualized 8% return over 20 years. The market is a war-zone and I am the commander of my trading army. My dollars are my soldiers. Every time I send them out to battle, I expect them to return with some of the enemy's soldiers as the spoils of war. After reading these books, I learned how to pick favorable battles, how to keep track of my army, how to lead my soldiers into an attack, and how to make sure that I know exactly how many I can sacrifice before withdrawing my troops from battle.

Some battles take days, some take weeks, others months, and sometimes even years. However, all battles are planned ahead of time. To this day, the greatest thing I've learned throughout all of this is to be patient and to enter the battle only when the odds are tilted in your favor. In the same way a general uses terrain maps to learn the lay of the land, a trader uses charts to gauge the markets. In future articles I will discuss the types of charts I use, and how I use them to pick advantageous trading opportunities over multiple time-frames and asset-classes.

Feel free to leave any comments or insights you may have. Let me know of any books you think are worth reading.

Trade Risk Calculator

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I have created a profit calculator for stock/futures/options/currency trading which has proven to be very useful to me. The calculator was designed to assist me in planning my stops for all my trades. It is important to note that I use this tool for every single trade that I put on. I am comfortable planning out my trades slowly and carefully so that I know exactly where my exit strategy will come into place on the downside in case things go south, and since I do not day trade, there are no worries about being late to the game because for me, trading is not about chasing momentum. It is about planning a trade and then trading the plan. This is an important step in eliminating my emotion from the trade. I resign to the fact that if things do not go my way I know exactly where my trailing-stop or stop-limit order will trigger before I get attached to the trade.

The calculator is pretty simple. You enter the number of shares/contracts you are going to trade, the price per share/contract, your commission (buy-side, sell-side, or both), and your account value. The rest is automated. From these values, the calculator returns your total cost, break-even price/percentage, your stop loss trigger-point/percentage, your total risk (based upon 2% of account value), and your total risk expressed as a percentage of your account equity.

This is a work in progress. If you have any suggestions or recommendations please leave a comment. Let me know if this is useful to you, or if there are any changes you would like to see.

Click here to launch the calculator:

Trade Risk Calculator

Below you will find a screen-shot of the results view:

risk_calc.png

One of the most successful hedge fund strategies is the Long/Short Equity trade. It is as simple as it sounds. You go long (buy) a security you think will increase in value, and you sell (short) a security you think will decrease in value. This play works for just about everything. You can do it with stocks, bonds, forex, commodities, you name it. For stocks you would go long a strong company and short it's weak competitor. Case in point: Long AAPL short DELL would have made you good money over the last two years.

However, the trade I'm interested in right now, and the one I'm going to discuss with you, is a commodity play. I think going long gold and short oil is a potential winner. There are a few reasons why I believe this is a good play. First of all, the price of gold, when expressed in barrels of oil, has been relatively stable. The price of gold in Dollars, as you know, has not. In order to take on this trade you have to understand that an ounce of gold, or a share of GLD will buy you a certain amount of barrels of oil, or a certain number of shares of USO.

If you take a look at a weekly chart for GLD:USO over the last three years (from now on, when I express a pair trade it will always be noted as LONG:SHORT), you will see a basic S-wave in the 50-day moving average. Gold buys a lot of oil, gold buys less oil, lather, rinse, repeat. This trade is endless. The beauty of it is that it always works. You just have to catch it near the peak or the trough, and that is the name of the game. Buy low, sell high, or both at the same time for max profits.

GLDvsUSO_wkly.png

On a weekly chart, the first thing that grabs my attention is that the "price" is 0.88 which happens to be outside of the lower 50-week Bollinger band. When price falls outside of the bands, it doesn't last long. There is money to be made, but you need further confirmation. The place I go for confirmation is the RSI. The reading on the RSI is 23.97 which is well below 30 which is considered oversold. The third place I look for confirmation is in the MACD indicator. This indicator is really wide. The fast line is far below the slow line, and they are showing negative numbers close to the extremes of the previous peak in Jan/Feb of '07

Now I would like to demonstrate the daily chart over the last six months which shows (in greater microeconomic detail) the price action of this trade right now in the present. First we had to get a bigger picture and confirmation before we could drill down. As you can see in the chart below, the daily price isn't exactly outside of the 50-day Bollinger band, but it is oh-so-very-close to the bottom band. The interesting price action in my opinion is the steepening of the rate-of-change as the price has declined from April to May. 

I think there might be some consolidation before price retests the 50-day moving average. The second important indicator I look at here on the daily chart is once again the RSI. It is showing a reading of 21 which indicates "oversold" conditions. The general problem I find with RSI is that a security can be oversold for months before actually rebounding, but this is something you can see in the chart...GLD:USO has been oversold for roughly four weeks now. Lastly, you can look at the MACD and see that the downtrend has sort of flattened out over the last week. This is a 50/50 read on the indicator, but since it's negative, you have to look at probability. The probability of the MACD going much much lower when coupled with a low RSI and what I consider to be extreme price dislocation is pretty low.

GLD USO 05-06-08.png

I think that this trade serves as a perfect lesson in how to look for a proper long/short pair trade. Whether or not I make any money on it will only be something that time will tell.

I leave you with a disclaimer:

TechnicalAnalysisBlog.com and its author do not offer investment advice in any way. This site may include market analysis. All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
While I was at work this morning, I decided I would find out if the generous bankers at FXCM.com paid interest on the principle of an account held at their firm. It is a good thing that they offer live chat with a customer service representative direct from their website. So I went ahead and clicked the little "chat now" button and started on the customer service adventure of a lifetime. The transcript that follows is the word-for-word interaction (formatted for this blog) that I had with one of their highly trained and incredibly knowledgeable account representatives. If you can't smell the sarcasm you might as well stop reading.

--Begin Transcript--

FXCM¢3: Welcome to FXCM's Live Chat Feature.  So that we may better serve you, feel free to provide me with your name and email address. How may I help you?

ME: hi i got disconnected
ME: let me try this again
ME: if i have an account
ME: with $1000 USD
ME: as principle
ME: do you pay interest
ME: on the $1000 USD
ME: do i get a money market rate
ME: or fed funds?

FXCM¢3: the rates that you trade off - are streaming rates from banks- the interest that you pay is based on daily fixings- LIBOR rates

ME: no
ME: that was not what i asked

FXCM¢3: could you elaborate please?

ME: If I deposit $1000 USD into an account and I do not trade at all, I just leave the money sitting there waiting for that ever-so-sweet opportunity in forex trading. While the money is sitting there unused, with no margin at all, am I going to earn any type of interest on that capital?

FXCM¢3: AH
FXCM¢3: what type of volume are you trading?

ME: i'm not trading, i would have $1000 USD sitting in the account waiting to be put to work.

FXCM¢3: Your unused funds will not be earning interest then

ME: wow, that was like pulling teeth

FXCM¢3: They basically stay dormant

ME: thanks for your help. Next time you may want to answer with a "yes" or a "no" from the start

FXCM¢3: Its not a yes or no question- it depends on the volume that you trade

ME: i suggest going back and re-reading the transcript. I made it very clear to you what my situation was. Have a nice day and keep up the good work :)

--End Transcript--
I believe that it is imperative to be disciplined when trading. You should never lose sight of your ultimate goal, which is consistent profits. The most reckless traders ignore any type of rules. They chase momentum, trade on a whim, double-down, so on so forth. I've made the mistakes of averaging down on a long trade and averaging up on a short trade. Those trades always caught me off guard, overextended my risk beyond a comfortable level, and set me back a few points in my trading account. Over time, I have learned from my mistakes, and I have picked up a few useful rules from fellow traders. Here are what I believe to be twelve very essential rules for successfully trading any market (credit to carsdata for most of these):

  1. Have a system!
  2. Trade markets not money!
  3. Have a favorable risk to reward ratio!
  4. Always trade with a stop loss!
  5. Don't add to a loser!
  6. Trading not to lose!
  7. Strive for consistency!
  8. Don't be afraid to take a profit!
  9. Trade within your comfort level!
  10. Avoid reversing your position!
  11. If you have three losing trades in a row, take a break and examine your system to see if you're doing anything wrong.
  12. Remember, markets change and systems have to change with them.

Thinking Like a Hedge Fund Manager

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If you want to make money in the financial markets, you need to think and act like a (responsible) hedge fund manager. Why a hedge fund manager? Well, you need to be able to look at all sides of the market, analyze your probabilities of both success and failure, and act on your hypotheses. Additionally, you have to utilize risk management to avoid catastrophic failure. Successful hedge fund managers are known for having great strategies and even greater risk management. If you make that your mantra, you can succeed in the financial markets.

Traditional investing literature tells us that buying and holding stocks over the long term is the best way to make money. This theory works in a bull market and also relies on the fact that you constantly keep buying regardless of where the market is headed. Stocks go up, keep buying. Stocks go down, buy more. Stocks go to zero, keep buying, they'll go back up!

This is absolute bullshit. It's a flat out lie. Someone has to hold the bag so that the big guys can get out with their dignity (and profits). Face it, institutions control the markets. They establish the tops and bottoms, and you are merely a goldfish swimming in a sea of great white sharks. Honestly, think about it. The market cannot go up in value forever. Eventually, due to Price Elasticity of Demand, institutions will no longer want to buy high-priced securities. When this happens, the market turns and institutions begin to sell.

The best way to make money when the market goes wherever it wants to go is to devise a strategy. Most, if not all hedge funds have a strategy. Some are better than others, but they all have some kind of plan. If you want to make the most of your capital, formulate a hypothesis and trade it accordingly. Establish scenarios for both sides of your thesis and adjust your risk accordingly. If you chase momentum you are destined to lose. If you trade an idea, you will stand a better chance of making money.

The second most important thing you should take into account is risk management. Part of this implies that you respect your leverage. The other part is that you always have some kind of exit strategy. You don't want to get caught on the wrong side of the market without a way out. The current subprime nonsense is one of the greatest learning experiences any single investor/trader can have when it comes to learning about both of these issues. We are given the opportunity to learn firsthand that the biggest killer of anyone in these markets is taking on too much leverage and getting caught on the wrong side of the market without a proper way out (in this case, very illiquid markets). Idiots like Bear Stearns and Carlyle Capital were leveraged over 30:1 when their Ponzi scheme imploded on them. They lost $30 for every $1 change in their underlying assets. These people need to be taken to Kennedy Space Center, strapped into the next available rocket on the launchpad, and shot into the sun. At 30:1 it only takes a 3.33% loss to lose all of your capital. Now, a bank like JP Morgan is levered 74:1 of which most of their assets are in derivative financial instruments. Don't worry, these guys are the pros. They know what they are doing!

Now, when you are using leverage, you're no different than a big bank or well-capitalized hedge fund. The only thing that separates you from the big boys is the amount of leverage (read: RISK) you use, how you use it, and how you manage it (not to mention about seven or eight zeroes to the left of the decimal on your account balance).

Let us not confuse leverage with margin. Although some may argue that leverage and margin are the same thing, I beg to differ. You can use margin without using leverage. Whereas margin allows you to borrow money or shares from your broker to take on a short position, leverage allows you to multiply your risk by a factor of 2:1 in most cases, 4:1 if you have a good broker, and 30+:1 if you are buddy-buddy with Hank "tHANKs" Paulson and Ben "I take it in the beard" Bernanke. Don't let the "free money" get to your head because it will be the end of you.

In summary, if you expect to be a successful trader, you should examine any potential position from all possible outcomes. You do this so that you can assess risk and plan the trade accordingly. Always have an exit strategy. Know your downside risk so that if you do get burned, you know exactly how bad before it happens. Do not over-leverage yourself or else you could end up like Bear Stearns or Carlyle Capital. If you run your money with the same level of professionalism as a (responsible) hedge fund manager would, you can obtain similar successful results while maintaining total control over your capital. Why pay 2% of assets and 20% of gains to some Wall Street goon when you can keep that money for yourself?
I have decided to start this blog with the sole purpose of establishing a platform from which I can discuss market trends as they develop and to further sharpen my skills as a trader.

Here's a little information about me:

I have been trading since 2005 and have had my ups and downs. The market is a fascinating place where dreams are realized and destroyed every single day. I got started as a trader by going to an Investools sales seminar where I briefly learned about technical analysis. Ever since then I have been hooked on learning as much as I can about the subject. I've studied technicals, fundamentals, supersitions, you name it. Everything applies in the markets.

"The Market" is the largest self-fulfilling prophecy I've ever witnessed. You have to learn about everyone else's trading methods in order to know what they are thinking and how they will react to changes in the market. Markets change, your systems have to change with them, and you can never let your guard down for even one fraction of a second or you will be eaten by sharks and spit out for the bottom feeders to nibble on your remains.

Just so you are aware, I do not consider myself to be a market guru. I don't know all of the answers. I make mistakes, and yes, trading is difficult. Making money in the stock market is not easy, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. However, you learn something with every trade (winner or loser). You gain knowledge about yourself and about the market and you use this knowledge to your advantage. Trading is a learning experience. I call it a "baptism by fire" and it requires perseverance, patience, mental fortitude, and belief in one's ideas.

With all that having been said, I hope that you will continue to check back here often as I share my insights into the markets with anyone kind enough to listen. I encourage your feedback.

Lastly, TechnicalAnalysisBlog.com does not offer investment advice in any way. This site may include market analysis. All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.

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